股市徘徊在历史高点附近, one would think investors are full of investing confidence. 然而, as has been the case since the financial crisis of 2008, 股市的复苏并不受欢迎. And in some ways, the skepticism towards the strength of stocks keeps pushing stocks higher. 正如约翰·邓普顿爵士的名言, “牛市诞生于悲观主义, 在怀疑中成长, 在乐观中成熟，在兴奋中死亡.“确实, 人们一直持怀疑态度，缺乏乐观情绪, 以及一个宽松的联邦储备银行, 这为股票价值提供了支撑.
最近的行情令人难以置信, and despite what has happened since the March 2020 lows, 市场不会只朝一个方向运动. In the second half of 2021, the market will need a new catalyst to match the strong YTD result. 我们已经从2020年的低水平反弹.S. 国内生产总值 (GDP), and low corporate earnings, to massive spikes in GDP and earnings. But things will normalize and, while stocks can move higher, investors should manage expectations. Here are nine risks that might cause stocks to participate in a long-awaited correction.
市场风险包括:
- 美联储的语气发生了变化. In the fourth quarter of 2018 stocks declined almost 20% in about 90 days largely due to then new 联邦储备银行 Chairman Powell’s comments and some monetary tightening. A similarly fast decline could follow if the Fed’s tone changes – although after several years on the job, 鲍威尔的措辞更为慎重.
- 更高的税收. The markets have been ignoring potential tax hikes on businesses and individuals. 具体地说, a change to the capital gains rate could lead to pre-year end profit taking – and if a negative mood is present, 任何抛售都可能被放大.
- 更多的规定. 新法规的成本不会立即显现, but eventually they hurt profits and new investment.
- 增加米&一个审查. 白宫新指南 限制并购 会有更高的审批门槛吗. This will narrow valuations – see the recent drop in 堪萨斯城南方大学(KSU) whose merger with Canadian National Railway is now in doubt.
- 欧洲和日本增长缓慢. Aging populations in Europe and Japan are deflationary. Debt and structural inefficiencies continue to plague Europe. Japan’s hoped for Olympic boost didn’t materialize. These regions were in slow growth mode before Covid, and little has happened in the past 18 months to change that.
- 高估值. The 股票市场 run-up has created high market multiples with the 美国股票的远期市盈率&P 500 22度以北. While low rates and strong earnings growth can justify some of this, it is above its historical market average which makes stock prices vulnerable to a correction.
- Covid-Shutdowns. 无论是对新冠病毒的恐惧, 入住率限制, 或者政府强制关闭, the specter of Covid remains an obstacle to optimism.
- 情绪和算法交易的转变. 机器和算法是强大的, 当“避险”情绪卷土重来时, 市场波动可能会加速. To be sure, an over-reaction can create opportunity for the savvy investor. But an emotional investor may think this is the ‘big one’ and sell which can fuel activity to the downside.
- 未知的全球事件. We’ve had relative stability around the globe which is unlikely to be a permanent condition. 例如, the past few weeks saw a significant drop in Chinese stocks because of comments made by the Chinese regulators. This sharp and quick downturn is a small reminder of how billions in 股票市场 value can be lost very quickly.
Despite these risks, the bullish case is that liquidity is massive and not going away. The Fed continues to focus more on employment than inflation. 国会将在基础设施上投资, earnings will grow (albeit at a slower rate than this most recent quarter’s historical performance), 创新正在提高生产力. 在债券收益率较低的情况下，资金总有去处, 投资者别无选择，只能转向股票. I don’t discount this long-running bullish case – provided Jerome Powerful continues to have the 股票市场’s back. 尽管如此, investors might be wise to pause before putting new money to work, 而是寻找一个更有利的切入点.
Mark Avallone是 财务自由倒计时的创始人和总裁 Potomac财富顾问有限责任公司 a financial advisory firm serving clients through holistic financial planning and wealth management. 阿瓦隆撰写了各种金融主题的文章, and his contributions have appeared in the Wall Street Journal as well as in Forbes where he is a regular contributor. 他是CNBC的常客, 福克斯商业电视网, 和当地NBC电视台, 哥伦比亚广播公司, 以及福克斯在华盛顿的分支机构, DC. His insights have also been published in USA Today, U.S. 新闻 & World Report, The Washington Post, and other leading publications.
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